About +/- (Plus/Minus)
A lot of our DFS-focused stats—the stuff that’s sport-agnostic—are centered around a concept we call “Plus/Minus” (+/-). Simply put, a player’s plus/minus is his actual points minus his expected points. So if Bradley Beal scored 300 points over the past 10 games and his expectation was 250 points, he would have a Plus/Minus of 50 total points, or +5.0 points per game.
Cool. So how do we know what to “expect” from each player? We know based on our database of historic salaries and fantasy performances on each daily fantasy site. Instead of using a fragile $/point system (or, even worse, sorting players into completely arbitrary tiers), we use historic performance data to help calculate exactly what to expect out of a player based on his cost. So if Beal costs $6,000, we know he should produce X points, on average.
Using Plus/Minus, we can calculate all kinds of really cool stats and identify league-winning trends. Our Consistency stat, for example, shows how often a player has exceeded his expected points. Instead of using a “well-how-often-does-he-reach-4x-his-salary?” system that naturally overvalues cheap players, we put every player on a level playing field since all of our stats are adjusted for cost.
Our Bargain Rating is a historical percentile rank representing how much of a bargain a player is on one daily fantasy site versus the other. We look at the typical difference in site salaries at a position and then rank a player based on how much of a bargain he is in a particular game relative to the historical data.
If a player costs the same on DraftKings as he does on FanDuel, for example, he might have a high Bargain Rating for DraftKings and a low Bargain Rating for FanDuel since the latter site has a smaller salary cap and thus tends to price certain players much lower, on average.
The Bargain Rating stat is extremely powerful and useful in a number of ways. First, there’s a strong link between Bargain Rating and player value (Plus/Minus). That shouldn’t be surprising since Plus/Minus is determined based on price; the cheaper a player, the more potential value he can offer (assuming the same skill level). It is smart to use Bargain Rating in your player models, especially in a sport like basketball in which it pays to be price-sensitive.
Second, Bargain Rating is an excellent way to determine where to get exposure to certain players. If you play daily fantasy sports on both DraftKings and FanDuel, you should get exposure to the players you like where they’re the cheapest. A big part of finding value is leaving yourself a cushion to soften the negative impact of assessment errors, and Bargain Rating does that better than any other stat.
The percentage of games in which a player has produced within a standard deviation of his expected points based off of historical scoring and pricing
To identify high-floor players for cash games
Upside figures show the percentage of games in which a player has finished at least one-half standard deviation above his salary-based implied total
To identify high-upside players for tournaments
Our Dud stat calculates the percentage of games in which a player finishes at least one-half a standard deviation below his salary-based implied total
To identify low-floor players to avoid in cash games
Our Trends product lets you leverage our massive database of historical salaries and fantasy performances to determine in which situations players traditionally offer value. You can create your own trends or utilize our DFS-pro-created ‘Pro Trends,’ which already show up in models and player cards.
Our Pro Trends are very strongly linked to value, and they allow you to truly customize your models based on angles you find.
TOI – A player’s time on ice over the date range
S+Blk – Shots on goal plus blocks per game
Corsi For – an advanced stat measuring shot attempts at even strength; shots on goal, missed shots, and block shot attempts towards the opposition’s net
Corsi Against – an advanced stat measuring shot attempts allowed at even strength; shots on goal, missed shots, and block shot attempts towards the opposition’s net
Fnk For – The percentile of the advanced stat measuring unblocked shot attempts at even strength; shots on goal and missed shots on goal towards the opponent’s net
PP – The prefix ‘PP ’refers to stats accumulated during the power player
SH – The prefix “SH’ refers to stats accumulated while short-handed
PIM – Penalty minutes
EN G – Empty net goals
SA – Shot attempts
PK – Penalty kills